When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

TL;DR

This paper surveys AI researchers' predictions on when AI will surpass human performance across various tasks, highlighting expected timelines and regional differences to inform policy and research planning.

Contribution

It provides empirical estimates of AI experts' timelines for AI surpassing human abilities in multiple domains, based on a large-scale survey.

Findings

AI to outperform humans in translation by 2024

AI to write high-school essays by 2026

AI to automate all human jobs in 120 years

Abstract

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.