# CDS Rate Construction Methods by Machine Learning Techniques

## TL;DR

This paper systematically compares machine learning classifiers to construct proxy CDS rates for illiquid counterparties, demonstrating high accuracy and analyzing performance variations across classifiers and data correlations.

## Contribution

It is the first systematic study applying machine learning to CDS proxy construction and classifier comparison using financial market data.

## Key findings

- Some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates
- Performance varies significantly among classifiers and data correlations
- The study provides insights into classifier performance in highly correlated financial data

## Abstract

Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific default risks; we propose to construct proxy CDS rates by associating to illiquid counterparty liquid CDS Proxy based on Machine Learning Techniques. After testing 156 classifiers from 8 most popular classifier families, we found that some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates. Furthermore, we have rank-ordered the performances and investigated performance variations amongst and within the 8 classifier families. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic study of CDS Proxy construction by Machine Learning techniques, and the first systematic classifier comparison study based entirely on financial market data. Its findings both confirm and contrast existing classifier performance literature. Given the typically highly correlated nature of financial data, we investigated the impact of correlation on classifier performance. The techniques used in this paper should be of interest for financial institutions seeking a CDS Proxy method, and can serve for proxy construction for other financial variables. Some directions for future research are indicated.