Changes in Ugandan Climate Rainfall at the Village and Forest Level

TL;DR

This study analyzes 34 years of rainfall data over Uganda, revealing a significant 12% decrease in average rainfall, especially impacting agricultural and wildlife habitats, with implications for food security and conservation.

Contribution

It provides a detailed spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall decline in Uganda using ARC2 data, highlighting regional impacts on agriculture and wildlife habitats.

Findings

Overall 12% decrease in rainfall over 34 years

Greatest decreases in central and western Uganda

Implications for agriculture, food security, and wildlife habitat

Abstract

In 2013, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency refined the historical rainfall estimates over the African Continent and produced the African Rainfall Climate version 2.0 (ARC2) estimator. ARC2 offers a nearly complete record of daily rainfall estimates since 1983 at 0.1 x 0.1 degree resolution. Despite short-term anomalies in twice-yearly rainy season intensities in Uganda, we identify an overall decrease in average rainfall of about 12% during the past 34 years. Spatiotemporally, these decreases are greatest in agricultural regions of central and western Uganda, but are also reflective of rainfall decreases in the gorilla habitat within the Bwindi Forest in Southwest Uganda. The findings carry significant implications for agriculture, food security, and wildlife habitat.