# Avalanche precursors in a frictional model

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a simple one-dimensional numerical model of elastically coupled sliders on a frictional incline to study avalanche precursors, reproducing regular events and providing analytical insights into early rearrangements.

## Contribution

It presents a novel minimal model that captures avalanche precursors and offers an analytical framework for understanding early system rearrangements.

## Key findings

- Reproduction of large-scale regular avalanche events
- Development of master equations describing system state
- Analytical threshold for rearrangements before avalanches

## Abstract

We present a one-dimensional numerical model based on elastically coupled sliders on a frictional incline of variable tilt. This very simple approach makes possible to study the precursors to the avalanche and to provide a rationalization of different features that have been observed in experiments. We provide a statistical description of the model leading to master equations describing the state of the system as a function of the angle of inclination. Our central results are the reproduction of large-scale regular events preceding the avalanche, on the one hand, and an analytical approach providing an internal threshold for the outbreak of rearrangements before the avalanche in the system, on the other hand.