# Empirical analysis and agent-based modeling of Lithuanian parliamentary elections

## TL;DR

This paper analyzes Lithuanian parliamentary election vote share distributions, finds they fit Beta distributions, and introduces an agent-based model to replicate these patterns, highlighting mechanisms influencing voting behavior.

## Contribution

It presents a novel agent-based model that captures vote share distributions and explores mechanisms driving voting behavior in Lithuanian elections.

## Key findings

- Vote share distributions fit Beta distribution well.
- The model reproduces 1992 election vote shares.
- Extensions are needed to match 2008 and 2012 data.

## Abstract

In this contribution we analyze a parties' vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008 and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation we propose a simple multi-state agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.