# Universal Scaling Laws in Metro Area Election Results

## TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that election results in large cities versus rural areas follow universal urban scaling laws, with one party exhibiting superlinear growth and the other sublinear, explained through a social diversity model.

## Contribution

It introduces a universal urban scaling framework to explain election anomalies and proposes a microscopic voter behavior model incorporating social diversity and tolerance.

## Key findings

- Scaling curves are universal and depend on a single parameter.
- One party consistently shows superlinear scaling, the other sublinear.
- The model predicts political phenomena like left fragmentation and immigration paradox.

## Abstract

We explain the anomaly of election results between large cities and rural areas in terms of urban scaling in the 1948-2016 US elections and in the 2016 EU referendum of the UK. The scaling curves are all universal and depend on a single parameter only, and one of the parties always shows superlinear scaling and drives the process, while the sublinear exponent of the other party is merely the consequence of probability conservation. Based on the recently developed model of urban scaling, we give a microscopic model of voter behavior in which we replace diversity characterizing humans in creative aspects with social diversity and tolerance. The model can also predict new political developments such as the fragmentation of the left and 'the immigration paradox'.