# Macroscopic crack propagation in brittle heterogeneous materials analyzed in Natural Time

## TL;DR

This paper studies the slow propagation of cracks in brittle heterogeneous materials using natural time analysis, revealing universal scaling laws and similarities with seismic activity that could help predict major earthquakes.

## Contribution

It demonstrates that crack propagation exhibits universal scaling and that natural time variance aligns with seismic precursors, offering insights into earthquake prediction.

## Key findings

- Crack jumps and energy releases follow power law distributions with universal exponents.
- Natural time variance near 0.0686 matches seismic precursors before earthquakes.
- Crack growth shows self-affinity and Family-Vicsek scaling, linking material failure to seismic phenomena.

## Abstract

Here, we analyze in natural time $\chi$, the slow propagation of a macroscopic crack in brittle heterogeneous materials through sudden jumps and energy release events which are power law distributed with universal exponents. This macroscopic crack growth is currently believed to exhibit similar characteristics with the seismicity associated with earthquakes. Considering that the crack front is self affine and exhibits Family-Vicsek universal scaling, we show that the variance $\kappa_1 (\equiv\langle \chi^2\rangle -\langle \chi \rangle^2)$ of natural time is equal to 0.0686, which almost coincides with the value $\kappa_1\approx 0.07$ obtained from the seismicity preceding major earthquakes. This sheds light on the determination of the occurrence time of an impending mainshock.