# Impact of anthropogenic climate change on the East Asian summer monsoon

## TL;DR

This study analyzes how human-induced climate change has altered the East Asian summer monsoon, showing decreased overall rainfall but increased intensity of extreme events, with implications for future climate impacts.

## Contribution

It introduces a new attribution system to quantify the impact of anthropogenic factors on EASM rainfall and extreme events over the past 65 years.

## Key findings

- Overall monsoon rainfall has decreased.
- Extreme rainfall events have become shorter and more intense.
- Future projections indicate increased extreme rainfall with warming.

## Abstract

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. We present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in Eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years, and an increased number of dry days. However the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region.