A Multi-Index Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

TL;DR

This paper introduces a modified multi-index MCMC method that efficiently computes expectations for complex stochastic systems with multi-dimensional discretizations, improving over traditional sampling methods.

Contribution

It develops a novel MIMC algorithm that integrates standard MCMC to handle complex probability laws, enhancing efficiency over existing methods.

Findings

Proves a variance reduction theorem for the MIMC method.

Demonstrates the method's effectiveness on a stochastic PDE problem.

Shows improved computational efficiency compared to i.i.d. sampling.

Abstract

In this article we consider computing expectations w.r.t.~probability laws associated to a certain class of stochastic systems. In order to achieve such a task, one must not only resort to numerical approximation of the expectation, but also to a biased discretization of the associated probability. We are concerned with the situation for which the discretization is required in multiple dimensions, for instance in space and time. In such contexts, it is known that the multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC) method can improve upon i.i.d.~sampling from the most accurate approximation of the probability law. Indeed by a non-trivial modification of the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method and it can reduce the work to obtain a given level of error, relative to the afore mentioned i.i.d.~sampling and relative even to MLMC. In this article we consider the case when such probability laws are too complex to sampled independently. We develop a modification of the MIMC method which allows one to use standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to replace independent and coupled sampling, in certain contexts. We prove a variance theorem which shows that using our MIMCMC method is preferable, in the sense above, to i.i.d.~sampling from the most accurate approximation, under assumptions. The method is numerically illustrated on a problem associated to a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE).