How does propaganda influence the opinion dynamics of a population ?

TL;DR

This paper uses computer simulations based on a bounded confidence model to analyze how propaganda affects opinion dynamics, including fragmentation, polarization, and radicalization, in online populations.

Contribution

It introduces a simulation framework to study propaganda's impact on opinion evolution and radicalization, highlighting that counter propaganda effectiveness is not always centrist.

Findings

Propaganda can cause radicalization depending on pre-existing opinions.

Optimal counter propaganda is not necessarily centrist.

Online populations can become fragmented, polarized, or harmonious.

Abstract

The evolution of opinions in a population of individuals who constantly interact with a common source of user-generated content (i.e. the internet) and are also subject to propaganda is analyzed using computer simulations. The model is based on the bounded confidence approach. In the absence of propaganda, computer simulations show that the online population as a whole is either fragmented, polarized or in perfect harmony on a certain issue or ideology depending on the uncertainty of individuals in accepting opinions not closer to theirs. On applying the model to simulate radicalization, a proportion of the online population, subject to extremist propaganda radicalize depending on their pre-conceived opinions and opinion uncertainty. It is found that an optimal counter propaganda that prevents radicalization is not necessarily centrist.