Secular light curves of 25 members of the Themis family of asteroids, suspected of exhibiting low level cometary activity

TL;DR

This study analyzes 165 Themis family asteroids using a large dataset to identify low-level cometary activity, suggesting many main belt asteroids might be active or extinct comets, challenging current paradigms.

Contribution

It introduces a new method of detecting low-level activity in asteroids through brightness analysis, revealing a potentially large population of active or extinct comets in the main belt.

Findings

25 out of 165 asteroids showed brightness enhancements suggestive of activity

Estimated ~111,000 active asteroids in the main belt if extrapolated

Highlights the need for observational verification of candidates

Abstract

From 1996 to 2015 sixteen main belt asteroids were discovered exhibiting cometary activity (less than one per year), all of them during searches at the telescope. In this work we will explore another way to discover them. We reduced 192016 magnitude observations of 165 asteroids of the Themis family, using data from the astrometric-photometric database of the Minor Planet Center, MPCOBS, and measuring the absolute magnitudes from the phase plots. 25 objects of 165 (15.2%), exhibited bumps or enhancements in brightness that might indicate low level cometary activity. Since activity repeats at the same place in different orbits and in many occasions is centered at perihelion, activity might be due to water ice sublimation. As of September 2016, there are 717768 asteroids listed in the MPC files. If we assume that we do not have any false positives and the above percentage can be extrapolated to the whole Main Belt, the number of potentially active asteroid gets to the very large number of ~111.000. This number is much larger than the ones predicted in previous surveys and indicates one of three scenarios: A) there are many false positives in our detections and the real number of active asteroid is much smaller than we found, implying that the MPC astrometric-photometric database is only astrometric and not photometric. B) The location of active asteroids is restricted to the Themis family and an extrapolation to the whole belt is not possible. Or C) there are few false positives in our candidates and the main belt actually contains many low level active asteroids undetected by current surveys. Case C) would imply that the main belt is not a field of bare rocks but a graveyard of extinct comets, changing our current paradigm of the main belt. So it is of the outmost importance to verify observationally our candidates, and determine which of these scenarios is valid.