# Effects of rainfall on Culex mosquito population dynamics

## TL;DR

This study models how rainfall patterns and variability influence the population dynamics of Culex mosquitoes, revealing optimal rainy days for maximum abundance and the impact of rainfall variability on mosquito populations, with implications for climate change effects.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a new model incorporating rainfall effects and variability on Culex mosquito populations, highlighting the influence of rainy days and rainfall variability on mosquito abundance.

## Key findings

- Optimal number of rainy days maximizes mosquito abundance.
- Increased rainfall variability reduces dependence on rainy days.
- High annual rainfall and variability can shift peak mosquito abundance earlier.

## Abstract

The dynamics of a mosquito population depends heavily on climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. Since climate change models predict that global warming will impact on the frequency and intensity of rainfall, it is important to understand how these variables affect the mosquito populations. We present a model of the dynamics of a {\it Culex quinquefasciatus} mosquito population that incorporates the effect of rainfall and use it to study the influence of the number of rainy days and the mean monthly precipitation on the maximum yearly abundance of mosquitoes $M_{max}$. Additionally, using a fracturing process, we investigate the influence of the variability in daily rainfall on $M_{max}$. We find that, given a constant value of monthly precipitation, there is an optimum number of rainy days for which $M_{max}$ is a maximum. On the other hand, we show that increasing daily rainfall variability reduces the dependence of $M_{max}$ on the number of rainy days, leading also to a higher abundance of mosquitoes for the case of low mean monthly precipitation. Finally, we explore the effect of the rainfall in the months preceding the wettest season, and we obtain that a regimen with high precipitations throughout the year and a higher variability tends to advance slightly the time at which the peak mosquito abundance occurs, but could significantly change the total mosquito abundance in a year.