# Increasing Trends of Guillain-Barr\'e Syndrome (GBS) and Dengue in Hong Kong

## TL;DR

This study investigates the increasing trends of Guillain-Barré Syndrome and dengue in Hong Kong, exploring their relationships with meteorological and climatic factors using statistical and wavelet analyses from 2000 to 2016.

## Contribution

It provides new insights into the temporal associations between GBS, dengue, and climate factors, highlighting non-stationary oscillating relationships over time.

## Key findings

- Both GBS and dengue cases increased over the study period.
- A weak negative correlation exists between GBS and local meteorological factors.
- MEI explains over 12% of dengue variation in Hong Kong.

## Abstract

Background: Guillain-Barr\'e Syndrome (GBS) is a common type of severe acute paralytic neuropathy and associated with other virus infections such as dengue fever and Zika. This study investigate the relationship between GBS, dengue, local meteorological factors in Hong Kong and global climatic factors from January 2000 to June 2016. Methods: The correlations between GBS, dengue, Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and local meteorological data were explored by the Spearman Rank correlations and cross-correlations between these time series. Poisson regression models were fitted to identify nonlinear associations between MEI and dengue. Cross wavelet analysis was applied to infer potential non-stationary oscillating associations among MEI, dengue and GBS. Findings : An increasing trend was found for both GBS cases and imported dengue cases in Hong Kong. We found a weak but statistically significant negative correlation between GBS and local meteorological factors. MEI explained over 12\% of dengue's variations from Poisson regression models. Wavelet analyses showed that there is possible non-stationary oscillating association between dengue and GBS from 2005 to 2015 in Hong Kong. Our study has led to an improved understanding of the timing and relationship between GBS, dengue and MEI.