Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

TL;DR

This study evaluates a CME prediction model using 8 years of heliospheric imager data, demonstrating its capabilities and limitations in forecasting CME arrivals at Earth and other planets.

Contribution

First comprehensive validation of a CME prediction model with long-term heliospheric imager data over a solar cycle.

Findings

Prediction accuracy within 2.6 hours on average

23%-35% of predicted CME hits confirmed by in situ data

False alarms outnumber correct predictions by 2 to 3 times

Abstract

We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.