# Reinterpreting Maximum Entropy in Ecology: a null hypothesis constrained by ecological mechanism

## TL;DR

This paper reinterprets maximum entropy in ecology by linking mechanistic models to MaxEnt constraints, providing a null model to evaluate ecological mechanisms and identify key state variables.

## Contribution

It introduces a method to translate ecological mechanisms into MaxEnt constraints, bridging pattern and process in ecological modeling.

## Key findings

- MaxEnt can serve as a null model for mechanistic predictions.
- Mechanistic models inform the choice of MaxEnt constraints.
- The approach isolates mechanism-specific information beyond state variables.

## Abstract

Simplified mechanistic models in ecology have been criticized for the fact that a good fit to data does not imply the mechanism is true: pattern does not equal process. In parallel, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) has been applied in ecology to make predictions constrained by just a handful of state variables, like total abundance or species richness. But an outstanding question remains: what principle tells us which state variables to constrain? Here we attempt to solve both problems simultaneously, by translating a given set of mechanisms into the state variables to be used in MaxEnt, and then using this MaxEnt theory as a null model against which to compare mechanistic predictions. In particular, we identify the sufficient statistics needed to parametrize a given mechanistic model from data and use them as MaxEnt constraints. Our approach isolates exactly what mechanism is telling us over and above the state variables alone.