# Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita)

## TL;DR

This study detects and models delayed density-dependent effects in the population dynamics of Didelphis aurita, revealing the significance of sexual maturity timing through a minimalist autoregressive model.

## Contribution

The paper introduces a simple, biologically interpretable autoregressive model that effectively captures delayed density dependence in small mammal populations.

## Key findings

- Model reproduces empirical population time series accurately.
- Highlights importance of sexual maturity timing in population dynamics.
- Provides biologically interpretable parameters for population modeling.

## Abstract

We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. The application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality are nowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general, they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than granting valuable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the model parameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.