Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2$^\circ$C

TL;DR

This paper introduces FTT:Transport, a realistic simulation model integrated into an IAM to evaluate detailed transport policies' effectiveness in reducing emissions and meeting the Paris Agreement's climate targets.

Contribution

The paper presents FTT:Transport, a novel evolutionary model for transport technology diffusion integrated into IAMs, enabling realistic policy impact assessments.

Findings

Transport policies can achieve significant emissions reductions.

Integrated model demonstrates feasibility of Paris Agreement targets.

Realistic consumer behavior modeling enhances policy evaluation.

Abstract

Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2$^\circ$C. Representations of technology evolution in current Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT:Transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2$^\circ$C target of the Paris Agreement.