# Probabilistic Constraints on the Mass and Composition of Proxima b

## TL;DR

This study probabilistically constrains the mass and composition of Proxima b, suggesting it is likely rocky but with a significant chance of having ice or a gaseous envelope, based on exoplanet data.

## Contribution

It provides the first probabilistic estimates of Proxima b's mass and radius considering various possible compositions and inclination angles.

## Key findings

- Approximately 90% likelihood of rocky composition.
- At least 10% chance of significant ice or H/He envelope.
- Expected mass around 1.63 Earth masses with wide confidence intervals.

## Abstract

Recent studies regarding the habitability, observability, and possible orbital evolution of the indirectly detected exoplanet Proxima b have mostly assumed a planet with $M \sim 1.3$ $M_\oplus$, a rocky composition, and an Earth-like atmosphere or none at all. In order to assess these assumptions, we use previous studies of the radii, masses, and compositions of super-Earth exoplanets to probabilistically constrain the mass and radius of Proxima b, assuming an isotropic inclination probability distribution. We find it is ~90% likely that the planet's density is consistent with a rocky composition; conversely, it is at least 10% likely that the planet has a significant amount of ice or an H/He envelope. If the planet does have a rocky composition, then we find expectation values and 95% confidence intervals of $\left<M\right>_\text{rocky} = 1.63_{-0.72}^{+1.66}$ $M_\oplus$ for its mass and $\left<R\right>_\text{rocky} = 1.07_{-0.31}^{+0.38}$ $R_\oplus$ for its radius.