A deterministic model for forecasting long-term solar activity

TL;DR

This paper introduces a deterministic phenomenological model that predicts long-term solar activity by linking planetary motion and solar flare data, successfully reproducing observed cycles and aiding space weather forecasting.

Contribution

The model uniquely combines planetary ecliptic motion with solar flare activity to forecast solar cycles, providing a new approach to understanding and predicting solar behavior.

Findings

Reproduces the evolution of solar cycles 22-24 with notable accuracy.

Predicts resurgence of solar activity in late 2017.

Provides forecasts for solar cycle 25.

Abstract

A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the relative ecliptic motion of the planets Jupiter and Saturn, and its synergy with a quasi-periodic component of solar activity. Using as input the temporal distribution of flares during cycle 21, the general evolution of cycles 22-24 is reproduced in notable agreement with the observations, including the resurgence of activity in the last months of 2017, and further predictions are provided for cycle 25. This deterministic description could contribute to elucidating the responsible physical mechanisms and forecasting space weather.