A tale of clusters: No resolvable periodicity in the terrestrial impact cratering record

TL;DR

This study reevaluates the supposed 26-million-year impact periodicity, finding no significant periodicity in the terrestrial impact cratering record over the last 500 million years when considering high-precision ages and the potential for clustered impacts.

Contribution

It demonstrates that previous claims of impact periodicity are likely artifacts of impact clustering and data analysis methods, providing a more nuanced understanding of impact event timing.

Findings

No significant impact periodicity in the last 500 Ma.

Impact clustering can produce false periodicity signals.

High-precision impact ages reduce perceived periodicity.

Abstract

Rampino & Caldeira (2015) carry out a circular spectral analysis (CSA) of the terrestrial impact cratering record over the past 260 million years (Ma), and suggest a ~26 Ma periodicity of impact events. For some of the impacts in that analysis, new accurate and high-precision ("robust"; 2SE<2%) 40Ar-39Ar ages have recently been published, resulting in significant age shifts. In a CSA of the updated impact age list, the periodicity is strongly reduced. In a CSA of a list containing only impacts with robust ages, we find no significant periodicity for the last 500 Ma. We show that if we relax the assumption of a fully periodic impact record, assuming it to be a mix of a periodic and a random component instead, we should have found a periodic component if it contributes more than ~80% of the impacts in the last 260 Ma. The difference between our CSA and the one by Rampino & Caldeira (2015) originates in a subset of "clustered" impacts (i.e., with overlapping ages). The ~26 Ma periodicity seemingly carried by these clusters alone is strongly significant if tested against a random distribution of ages, but this significance disappears if it is tested against a distribution containing (randomly-spaced) clusters. The presence of a few impact age clusters (e.g., from asteroid break-up events) in an otherwise random impact record can thus give rise to false periodicity peaks in a CSA. There is currently no evidence for periodicity in the impact record.