# Vulnerability and co-susceptibility determine the size of network cascades

## TL;DR

This paper introduces a statistical framework that predicts the size of network cascades by analyzing component vulnerability and co-susceptibility, with power grids as a key example, offering insights applicable to various complex systems.

## Contribution

The paper develops a novel framework that incorporates vulnerability and co-susceptibility to predict cascade sizes, revealing structured groups of co-failure in networks.

## Key findings

- Correlations between component failures form large co-susceptible groups.
- Structured co-susceptibility significantly influences cascade sizes.
- Framework applicable to diverse complex systems beyond power grids.

## Abstract

In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail, in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Here, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the co-susceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of co-susceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies, these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.