# Transit probability of precessing circumstellar planets in binaries and exomoons

## TL;DR

This paper analyzes how orbital precession and three-body dynamics can significantly increase the transit probabilities of circumstellar planets in tight binaries and exomoons, suggesting observational strategies and explaining current non-detections.

## Contribution

It provides analytic and numerical calculations of transit probabilities considering orbital precession and mutual inclination, highlighting the impact on detection likelihood for these systems.

## Key findings

- Transit probabilities can reach tens of percent due to precession.
- Eclipsing binaries significantly bias transit detection chances.
- Transit signatures may be quasi-periodic and time-dependent.

## Abstract

Over two decades of exoplanetology have yielded thousands of discoveries, yet some types of systems are yet to be observed. Circumstellar planets around one star in a binary have been found, but not for tight binaries (< 5 AU). Additionally, extra-solar moons are yet to be found. This paper motivates finding both types of three-body system by calculating analytic and numerical probabilities for all transit configurations, accounting for any mutual inclination and orbital precession. The precession and relative three-body motion can increase the transit probability to as high as tens of per cent, and make it inherently time-dependent over a precession period as short as 5-10 yr. Circumstellar planets in such tight binaries present a tempting observational challenge: enhanced transit probabilities but with a quasi-periodic signature that may be difficult to identify. This may help explain their present non-detection, or maybe they simply do not exist. Whilst this paper considers binaries of all orientations, it is demonstrated how eclipsing binaries favourably bias the transit probabilities, sometimes to the point of being guaranteed. Transits of exomoons exhibit a similar behaviour under precession, but unfortunately only have one star to transit rather than two.