Population dynamics of synthetic Terraformation motifs

TL;DR

This paper develops simple mathematical models to analyze the stability and effectiveness of synthetic ecological designs, called Terraformation motifs, aimed at preventing ecosystem collapse due to global threats.

Contribution

It introduces the first formal mathematical framework for assessing the stability of synthetic ecological interactions designed to avert ecosystem collapse.

Findings

Defined stability conditions for each Terraformation motif.

Identified domains where motifs effectively prevent catastrophic shifts.

Provided a basis for designing synthetic interventions in ecosystems.

Abstract

Ecosystems are complex systems, currently experiencing several threats associated with global warming, intensive exploitation, and human-driven habitat degradation. Such threats are pushing ecosystems to the brink of collapse. Because of a general presence of multiple stable states, including states involving population extinction, and due to intrinsic nonlinearities associated with feedback loops, collapse can occur in a catastrophic manner. Such catastrophic shifts have been suggested to pervade many of the future transitions affecting ecosystems at many different scales. Many studies have tried to delineate potential warning signals predicting such ongoing shifts but little is known about how such transitions might be effectively prevented. It has been recently suggested that a potential path to prevent or modify the outcome of these transitions would involve designing synthetic organisms and synthetic ecological interactions that could push these endangered systems out of the critical boundaries. Four classes of such ecological engineering designs or {\em Terraformation motifs} have been defined in a qualitative way. Here we develop the simplest mathematical models associated with these motifs, defining the expected stability conditions and domains where the motifs shall properly work.