Global economic dynamics of the forthcoming years. A forecast

TL;DR

This paper forecasts global economic trends up to 2018-2018, predicting a recession in developed countries followed by a recovery aligned with Kondratieff cycles, emphasizing international cooperation for stability.

Contribution

It introduces a short-term global economic forecast based on log-periodic oscillations and Kondratieff cycle analysis, linking financial crisis phases to economic recovery patterns.

Findings

Recession expected in developed countries in late 2017

Developing countries will slow down due to commodity prices and debt

Global growth likely to accelerate after 2018

Abstract

The paper analyzes the current state of the world economy and offers a short-term forecast of its development. Our analysis of log-periodic oscillations in the DJIA dynamics suggests that in the second half of 2017 the United States and other more developed countries could experience a new recession, due to the third phase of the global financial crisis. The economies of developing countries will continue their slowdown due to lower prices of raw commodities and the increased pressure of dollar debt load. The bottom of the slowdown in global economic growth is likely to be achieved in 2017-2018. Then we expect the start of a new acceleration of global economic growth at the upswing phase of the 6th Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). A speedy and steady withdrawal from the third phase of the global financial crisis requires cooperative action between developed and developing countries within G20 to stimulate global demand, world trade and a fair solution of the debt problem of developing countries.