Application of a full chain analysis using neutron monitor data for space weather studies

TL;DR

This paper presents a comprehensive model using neutron monitor data to analyze space weather events, deriving particle spectra and angular characteristics to accurately assess radiation doses during solar energetic particle events.

Contribution

It introduces a novel full chain analysis method combining neutron monitor data, yield functions, and optimization to derive SEP spectra and anisotropy with high precision.

Findings

Derived SEP spectra and anisotropy during GLEs

Computed dose rates based on new yield functions

Validated model with multiple event examples

Abstract

An important topic in the field of space weather is the precise assessment of the contribution of galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles on air crew exposure, specifically during eruptive events on the Sun. Here we present a model, a full chain analysis based on ground based measurements of cosmic rays with neutron monitors, subsequent derivation of particle spectral and angular characteristics and computation of dose rate. The model uses method for ground level enhancement analysis and newly numerically computed yield functions for conversion of secondary particle fluence to effective dose and/or the ambient dose equivalent. The precise an adequate information about the solar energetic particle spectra (SEPs) is the basis of the model. Since SEPs possess an essential isotropic part, specifically during the event onset, the angular characteristics should be also derived with good precision. This can be achieved using neutron monitor data during a special class of SEP events the ground level enhancements (GLEs). On the basis of the method representing a sequence of consecutive steps: computation of the NM asymptotic cones, NM rigidity cut-off and application of convenient optimization procedure, we derive the rigidity spectra and anisotropy characteristics of GLE particles. For the computation we use newly computed yield function of the standard sea-level 6NM64 neutron monitor for primary proton and alpha CR nuclei as well as 6NM64 yield function at altitudes ranging from the sea level up to 5000 m above the sea level. We derive the SEP spectra and pitch angle distributions in their dynamical development throughout the event. Subsequently on the basis of the derived spectra and angular characteristics and previously computed yield functions we calculate the effective dose and/or ambient dose equivalent during the GLE. Several examples are shown.