Temporal correlations between the earthquake magnitudes before major mainshocks in Japan

TL;DR

This study analyzes seismic data in Japan to identify characteristic minima in earthquake magnitude correlations before major earthquakes, revealing patterns of changing temporal correlations that could improve earthquake prediction.

Contribution

It introduces a novel analysis of seismic electric signals and natural time to identify precursory minima associated with large earthquakes in Japan.

Findings

Minima are linked to periods of long-range correlations in seismicity.

Pre-minima stages show anti-correlated behavior.

Minima before large earthquakes are distinguishable from other minima.

Abstract

A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a simultaneous distinct minimum upon analyzing the seismic catalogue in a new time domain termed natural time and employing a sliding natural time window comprising a number of events that would occur in a few months. Here, we focus on the minima preceding all earthquakes of magnitude 8 (and 9) class that occurred in Japanese area from 1 January 1984 to 11 March 2011 (the day of the M9 Tohoku earthquake). By applying Detrended Fluctuation Analysis to the earthquake magnitude time series, we find that each of these minima is preceded as well as followed by characteristic changes of temporal correlations between earthquake magnitudes. In particular, we identify the following three main features. The minima are observed during periods when long range correlations have been developed, but they are preceded by a stage in which an evident anti-correlated behavior appears. After the minima, the long range correlations break down to an almost random behavior turning to anti-correlation. The minima that precede M$\geq$7.8 earthquakes are distinguished from other minima which are either non-precursory or followed by smaller earthquakes.