Probability, propensity and probabilities of propensities (and of probabilities)

TL;DR

This paper explores the fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning through a toy experiment, highlighting its relevance in scientific inference and forecasting under uncertainty, and fostering clarifications among open-minded individuals.

Contribution

It introduces a toy experiment illustrating the core principles of probabilistic reasoning and discusses their importance in scientific and real-world decision-making.

Findings

Probabilistic reasoning naturally arises in simple experimental setups

The experiment clarifies key concepts in inference and forecasting under uncertainty

Discussion promotes understanding among non-ideologized, open-minded individuals

Abstract

The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real life applications, arise quite naturally and the resulting discussion among non-ideologized, free-minded people offers an opportunity for clarifications.