How do Chinese cities grow? A distribution dynamics approach

TL;DR

This study analyzes the growth patterns of Chinese cities from 1984 to 2010, revealing persistent multimodal distributions and the influence of initial size and location on city growth dynamics.

Contribution

It introduces a distribution dynamics approach to analyze Chinese city size evolution, highlighting the roles of initial size and regional factors in growth patterns.

Findings

Small and medium cities tend to converge in size.

Large cities exhibit persistence and multimodality.

Regional location significantly impacts city growth dynamics.

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of city size using a distribution dynamics approach with Chinese city data for the period 1984-2010. Instead of convergence, divergence or paralleled growth, multimodality and persistence are the dominant characteristics in the distribution dynamics of Chinese prefectural cities. Moreover, initial city size matters, initially small and medium-sized cities exhibit strong tendency of convergence, while large cities show significant persistence and multimodality in the sample period. Examination on the regional city groups shows that locational fundamentals have important impact on the distribution dynamics of city size.