Modelling the Proliferation of Terrorism via Diffusion and Contagion

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model based on contagion and diffusion to understand and analyze the spread of terrorism, using data from 2000-2016 across Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel.

Contribution

It introduces a novel mathematical model combining contagion and diffusion concepts to explain terrorism proliferation.

Findings

Model effectively explains terrorism spread patterns.

Data analysis reveals key factors influencing proliferation.

Model provides insights for policy responses.

Abstract

The proliferation of terrorism is a serious concern in national and international security, as its spread is seen as an existential threat to Western liberal democracies. Understanding and effectively modelling the spread of terrorism provides useful insight into formulating effective responses. A mathematical model capturing the theoretical constructs of contagion and diffusion is constructed for explaining the spread of terrorist activity and used to analyse data from the Global Terrorism Database from 2000--2016 for Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel.