A SICA compartmental model in epidemiology with application to HIV/AIDS in Cape Verde

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new HIV transmission model tailored to Cape Verde, demonstrating its stability, calibrating it with historical data, and analyzing factors influencing epidemic control efforts.

Contribution

A novel SICA compartmental model for HIV/AIDS transmission with proven stability and successful calibration to Cape Verde data, aiding epidemic understanding and policy planning.

Findings

Model accurately predicts HIV/AIDS cases in Cape Verde

Global stability of endemic equilibrium established

Sensitivity analysis highlights key factors for epidemic control

Abstract

We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS response in Cape Verde 2015", we calibrate our model to the cumulative cases of infection by HIV and AIDS from 1987 to 2014 and we show that our model predicts well such reality. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is done for the case study in Cape Verde. We conclude that the goal of the United Nations to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030 is a nontrivial task.