Box model of migration in channels of migration networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a box model for migration in network channels, analyzing stationary and non-stationary regimes, and deriving migrant distribution patterns including the Waring distribution and exponential trends.

Contribution

It presents a novel box model framework for migration networks, incorporating leakage and attractiveness variations, and explores both stationary and dynamic migrant distribution regimes.

Findings

Stationary regime distribution follows the Waring distribution.

Non-stationary regime exhibits exponential growth or decay of migrants.

Asymptotic distribution remains stationary despite non-stationary dynamics.

Abstract

We discuss a box model of migration in channels of networks with possible application for modelling motion of migrants in migration networks. The channel consists of nodes of the network (nodes may be considered as boxes representing countries) and edges that connect these nodes and represent possible ways for motion of migrants. The nodes of the migration channel have different "leakage", i.e. the probability of change of the status of a migrant (from migrant to non-migrant) may be different in the different countries along the channel. In addition the nodes far from the entry node of the channel may be more attractive for migrants in comparison to the nodes around the entry node of the channel. We discuss below channels containing infinite number of nodes. Two regimes of functioning of these channels are studied: stationary regime and non-stationary regime. In the stationary regime of the functioning of the channel the distribution of migrants in the countries of the channel is described by a distribution that contains as particular case the Waring distribution. In the non-stationary regime of functioning of the channel one observes exponential increase or exponential decrease of the number of migrants in the countries of the channel. It depends on the situation in the entry country of the channel for which scenario will be realized. Despite the non-stationary regime of the functioning of the channel the asymptotic distribution of the migrants in the nodes of the channel is stationary. From the point of view of the characteristic features of the migrants we discuss the cases of (i) migrants having the same characteristics and (ii) two classes of migrants that have differences in some characteristic (e.g., different religions).