SimAthens: A spatial microsimulation approach to the estimation and analysis of small-area income distributions and poverty rates in Athens, Greece

TL;DR

This paper introduces SimAthens, a spatial microsimulation model that estimates income inequality and poverty in Athens, Greece, using census and EU-SILC data, validated by labor market variables, during an economic crisis.

Contribution

The study develops the first spatial microsimulation model for Greece that combines census and EU-SILC data to analyze small-area income and poverty distributions.

Findings

High goodness of fit between simulated and real data.

Model effectively captures social and economic changes during crisis.

Validated using labor market and occupation data.

Abstract

Published during a severe economic crisis, this study presents the first spatial microsimulation model for the analysis of income inequalities and poverty in Greece. First, we present a brief overview of the method and discuss its potential for the analysis of multidimensional poverty and income inequality in Greece. We then present the SimAthens model, based on a combination of small-area demographic and socioeconomic information available from the Greek census of population with data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). The model is based on an iterative proportional fitting (IPF) algorithm, and is used to reweigh EU-SILC records to fit in small-area descriptions for Athens based on 2001 and 2011 censuses. This is achieved by using demographic and socioeconomic characteristics as constraint variables. Finally, synthesis of the labor market and occupations are chosen as the main variables for externally validating our results, in order to verify the integrity of the model. Results of this external validation process are found to be extremely satisfactory, indicating a high goodness of fit between simulated and real values. Finally, the study presents a number of model outputs, illustrating changes in social and economic geography, during a severe economic crisis, offering a great opportunity for discussing further potential of this model in policy analysis.