Rising Novelties on Evolving Networks: Recent Behavior Dominant and Non-Dominant Model

TL;DR

This paper introduces two models for predicting emerging popular nodes in evolving networks by emphasizing recent activity, demonstrating their effectiveness on real datasets and comparing with benchmark models.

Contribution

The paper proposes two novel models that focus on recent behavior to predict rising novelties in networks, highlighting their theoretical significance especially in recent behavior dominant systems.

Findings

Models effectively predict rising novelties in real datasets.

Performance varies across different datasets and metrics.

The models are particularly suited for recent behavior dominant systems.

Abstract

Novelty attracts attention like popularity. Hence predicting novelty is as important as popularity. Novelty is the side effect of competition and aging in evolving systems. Recent behavior or recent link gain in networks plays an important role in emergence or trend. We exploited this wisdom and came up with two models considering different scenarios and systems. Where recent behavior dominates over total behavior (total link gain) in the first one, and recent behavior is as important as total behavior for future link gain in second one. It suppose that random walker walks on a network and can jump to any node, the probablity of jumping or making connection to other node is based on which node is recently more active or receiving more links. In our assumption random walker can also jump to node which is already popular but recently not popular. We are able to predict rising novelties or popular nodes which is generally suppressed under preferential attachment effect. To show performance of our model we have conducted experiments on four real data sets namely, MovieLens, Netflix, Facebook and Arxiv High Energy Physics paper citation. For testing our model we used four information retrieval indices namely Precision, Novelty, Area Under Receiving Operating Characteristic(AUC) and Kendal's rank correlation coefficient. We have used four benchmark models for validating our proposed models. Although our model doesn't perform better in all the cases but, it has theoretical significance in working better for recent behavior dominant systems.