Data Science in Service of Performing Arts: Applying Machine Learning to Predicting Audience Preferences

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates how machine learning and statistical methods can be used by performing arts organizations to analyze audience preferences, predict ticket sales, and optimize marketing strategies, thereby enhancing community engagement.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive data science approach combining recommendation systems, customer segmentation, cohort analysis, and NLP to improve audience understanding and marketing in the performing arts sector.

Findings

Built a collaborative filtering recommendation system.

Identified customer segments and purchasing patterns.

Explored language impact on ticket sales through NLP.

Abstract

Performing arts organizations aim to enrich their communities through the arts. To do this, they strive to match their performance offerings to the taste of those communities. Success relies on understanding audience preference and predicting their behavior. Similar to most e-commerce or digital entertainment firms, arts presenters need to recommend the right performance to the right customer at the right time. As part of the Michigan Data Science Team (MDST), we partnered with the University Musical Society (UMS), a non-profit performing arts presenter housed in the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. We are providing UMS with analysis and business intelligence, utilizing historical individual-level sales data. We built a recommendation system based on collaborative filtering, gaining insights into the artistic preferences of customers, along with the similarities between performances. To better understand audience behavior, we used statistical methods from customer-base analysis. We characterized customer heterogeneity via segmentation, and we modeled customer cohorts to understand and predict ticket purchasing patterns. Finally, we combined statistical modeling with natural language processing (NLP) to explore the impact of wording in program descriptions. These ongoing efforts provide a platform to launch targeted marketing campaigns, helping UMS carry out its mission by allocating its resources more efficiently. Celebrating its 138th season, UMS is a 2014 recipient of the National Medal of Arts, and it continues to enrich communities by connecting world-renowned artists with diverse audiences, especially students in their formative years. We aim to contribute to that mission through data science and customer analytics.