An Epidemiological Model of Malaria Accounting for Asymptomatic Carriers

TL;DR

This paper develops a new mathematical model for malaria transmission that explicitly accounts for asymptomatic carriers, analyzing stability and bifurcations to improve understanding and control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel compartmental model that distinguishes asymptomatic carriers based on naturally acquired immunity, providing new insights into malaria dynamics.

Findings

The model's disease-free equilibrium is stable when R0<1.

A sub-critical bifurcation occurs, leading to multiple equilibria.

Additional conditions prevent backward bifurcation, aiding control strategies.

Abstract

Asymptomatic individuals in the context of malarial disease refers to subjects who carry a parasite load but do not show clinical symptoms. A correct understanding of the influence of asymptomatic individuals on transmission dynamics will provide a comprehensive description of the complex interplay between the definitive host (female \textit{Anopheles} mosquito), intermediate host (human) and agent (\textit{Plasmodium} parasite). The goal of this article is to conduct a rigorous mathematical analysis of a new compartmentalized malaria model accounting for asymptomatic human hosts for the purpose of calculating the basic reproductive number ($\mathcal{R}_0$), and determining the bifurcations that might occur at the onset of disease free equilibrium. A point of departure of this model from others appearing in literature is that the asymptomatic compartment is decomposed into two mutually disjoint sub-compartments by making use of the naturally acquired immunity (NAI) of the population under consideration. After deriving the model, a qualitative analysis is carried out to classify the stability of the equilibria of the system. Our results show that the dynamical system is locally asymptotically stable provided that $\mathcal{R}_0<1$. However this stability is not global, owning to the occurrence of a sub-critical bifurcation in which additional non-trivial sub-threshold equilibrium solutions appear in response to a specified parameter being perturbed. To ensure that the model does not undergo a backward bifurcation, we demand that an auxiliary parameter denoted $\Lambda<1$ in addition to the threshold constraint $\mathcal{R}_0<1$. The authors hope that this qualitative analysis will fill in the gaps of what is currently known about asymptomatic malaria and aid in designing strategies that assist the further development of malaria control and eradication efforts.