The 2016 Al-Mishraq sulphur plant fire: source and risk area estimation

TL;DR

This study estimates the sulfur dioxide release and health risk area from the 2016 Al-Mishraq fire using satellite data, dispersion modeling, and risk analysis, providing insights into the event's environmental and health impacts.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive method combining satellite measurements, dispersion modeling, and risk assessment to analyze a large-scale sulfur fire event.

Findings

Estimated 161 kilotonnes SO2 released over seven days

Predicted ground-level concentrations matched observed air quality data

Identified health risk zones using probit analysis

Abstract

On October 20, 2016, Daesh (Islamic State) set fire to the sulphur production site Al-Mishraq as the battle of Mosul in northern Iraq became more intense. An extensive plume of toxic sulphur dioxide and hydrogen sulphide caused comprehensive casualties. The intensity of the SO2 release was reaching levels of minor volcanic eruptions and the plume was observed by several satellites. By investigation of the measurement data from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Soumi satellites we have estimated the time-dependent source term to 161 kilotonnes sulphur dioxide released into the atmosphere during seven days. A long-range dispersion model was utilized to simulate the atmospheric transport over the Middle East. The ground level concentrations predicted by the simulation were compared with observation from the Turkey National Air Quality Monitoring Network. Finally, the simulation data provided, using a probit analysis of the simulated data, an estimate of the health risk area that was compared to reported urgent medical treatments. This article has been published in Atmospheric Environment, see cross link below.