The evolutionary approach to understand human low fertility phenomenon

TL;DR

This paper uses a hypothetical population model to analyze the decline in fertility rates in developed countries, suggesting economic and social reforms to reverse low fertility trends and promote demographic stability.

Contribution

It introduces a complex, evolving system model to explore how global economic changes influence individual fertility decisions and demographic trends.

Findings

Low TFR (<1.5) requires radical economic reforms.

Economic and social policies can promote TFR recovery.

Spatial wealth distribution impacts fertility rates.

Abstract

Is it possible to reverse the low total fertility rate (TFR) in the developed world? Using a hypothetical model of population we have analysed the decline of the TFR which have took place in the background of ongoing global economic changes, and a liberalization process after the end of the Cold War. These phenomena have affected more than 110 millions of inhabitants of Central Europe and the Baltics and approximately 80 millions of inhabitants in Germany. The model has features of complex and evolving system of interacting individuals, and it enables to investigate a broad spectrum of input factors on individual decisions to limit the offspring. In the case of the TFR <1.5, our initial analysis show a need of radical changes of the global economy that will stimulate series of self-regulations of demographic processes and evolution toward the safe TFR>2.1. The changes should stimulate more uniform spatial distribution of wealth, capital and usage. They will increase a number of self-sufficient and cooperative territories, to decrease the income inequality, to decrease labour and social mobilities. Societies should investigate the impacts of economic regulations and actions on the TFR trends in advance and take into account a biological nature of women more responsible.