A Comparison of Various Electricity Tariff Price Forecasting Techniques in Turkey and Identifying the Impact of Time Series Periods

TL;DR

This study compares 19 electricity tariff forecasting techniques in Turkey to identify the most accurate model for short-term predictions across different pricing periods, considering various historical data durations.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive comparison of multiple forecasting models for Turkish electricity tariffs, including the impact of different historical data periods on accuracy.

Findings

Recommended models achieved low forecasting errors.

Forecast accuracy improved with longer historical data periods.

Models effectively predicted short-term electricity prices.

Abstract

It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulated electricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitive market area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitable electricity tariff price forecasting tools are needed. In the presence of effective forecasting tools, taking the decisions of production, merchandising, maintenance and investment with the aim of maximizing the profits and benefits can be successively and effectively done. According to the electricity demand, there are four various electricity tariffs pricing in Turkey; monochromic, day, peak and night. The objective is find the best suitable tool for predicting the four pricing periods of electricity and produce short term forecasts (one year ahead-monthly). Our approach based on finding the best model, which ensures the smallest forecasting error measurements of: MAPE, MAD and MSD. We conduct a comparison of various forecasting approaches in total accounts for nine teen, at least all of those have different aspects of methodology. Our beginning step was doing forecasts for the year 2015. We validated and analyzed the performance of our best model and made comparisons to see how well the historical values of 2015 and forecasted data for that specific period matched. Results show that given the time-series data, the recommended models provided good forecasts. Second part of practice, we also include the year 2015, and compute all the models with the time series of January 2011 to December 2015. Again by choosing the best appropriate forecasting model, we conducted the forecast process and also analyze the impact of enhancing of time series periods (January 2007 to December 2015) to model that we used for forecasting process.