The energy-population conundrum and its possible solution

TL;DR

This paper models the complex interactions between oil prices, economic growth, and extraction costs to evaluate future oil supply scenarios and suggests policies to address potential energy challenges.

Contribution

It introduces a novel integrated model combining oil price, economic growth, and extraction costs to analyze future oil supply and policy implications.

Findings

Identifies critical dynamics affecting oil supply

Proposes policy measures for energy scenario management

Highlights risks of price swings on global economy

Abstract

Oil prices above $100/barrel values have proven unaffordable for the world economy, while lower prices have proven unaffordable for unconventional oil sources, resulting in a frantic price swing since 2007-2008. We identify and combine for the first time the competing dynamics of oil price, economic growth and extraction costs in a single model aiming to evaluate the near-term consequences of these dynamics onto forthcoming oil supply. Policies able to cope with the consequences of the resulting energy scenario are suggested in the conclusions.