Short-term prediction of localized cloud motion using ground-based sky imagers

TL;DR

This paper presents a method for short-term, localized cloud motion prediction using ground-based sky images and optical flow, achieving accurate forecasts up to 5 minutes ahead in tropical regions.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining ground-based sky imaging and optical flow for localized short-term cloud prediction in tropical climates.

Findings

Achieves accurate cloud location predictions up to 5 minutes ahead.

Utilizes high-resolution hemispherical sky images for better localization.

Demonstrates effectiveness in tropical, convection-driven cloud environments.

Abstract

Fine-scale short-term cloud motion prediction is needed for several applications, including solar energy generation and satellite communications. In tropical regions such as Singapore, clouds are mostly formed by convection; they are very localized, and evolve quickly. We capture hemispherical images of the sky at regular intervals of time using ground-based cameras. They provide a high resolution and localized cloud images. We use two successive frames to compute optical flow and predict the future location of clouds. We achieve good prediction accuracy for a lead time of up to 5 minutes.