On the origin of exponential growth in induced earthquakes in Groningen

TL;DR

This paper investigates the exponential increase in induced earthquakes in Groningen, linking it to land subsidence curvature, and demonstrates the mechanism through experiments, predicting a rise in significant events affecting residents.

Contribution

It introduces a novel mechanism connecting land subsidence curvature to earthquake growth and validates it with tabletop experiments, providing future earthquake risk predictions.

Findings

Exponential earthquake growth linked to land subsidence curvature

Skewed distribution of earthquake magnitudes matches experimental results

Predicted increase to about one M<5 event per day in 2025

Abstract

The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquakes event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades {essentially uncorrelated to gas production.} We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event $<$\,M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions.