General forms of finite population central limit theorems with applications to causal inference

TL;DR

This paper develops general finite population central limit theorems applicable to causal inference, providing a rigorous theoretical foundation for asymptotic analysis in various experimental designs and causal methods.

Contribution

It introduces new finite population central limit theorems based on survey and rank statistics, applicable to complex experimental setups in causal inference.

Findings

Theorems hold for multiple treatment levels and factors.

Applicable to instrumental variables, regression, rerandomization, and clustered experiments.

Fills theoretical gaps in asymptotic properties of causal inference methods.

Abstract

Frequentists' inference often delivers point estimators associated with confidence intervals or sets for parameters of interest. Constructing the confidence intervals or sets requires understanding the sampling distributions of the point estimators, which, in many but not all cases, are related to asymptotic Normal distributions ensured by central limit theorems. Although previous literature has established various forms of central limit theorems for statistical inference in super population models, we still need general and convenient forms of central limit theorems for some randomization-based causal analysis of experimental data, where the parameters of interests are functions of a finite population and randomness comes solely from the treatment assignment. We use central limit theorems for sample surveys and rank statistics to establish general forms of the finite population central limit theorems that are particularly useful for proving asymptotic distributions of randomization tests under the sharp null hypothesis of zero individual causal effects, and for obtaining the asymptotic repeated sampling distributions of the causal effect estimators. The new central limit theorems hold for general experimental designs with multiple treatment levels and multiple treatment factors, and are immediately applicable for studying the asymptotic properties of many methods in causal inference, including instrumental variable, regression adjustment, rerandomization, clustered randomized experiments, and so on. Previously, the asymptotic properties of these problems are often based on heuristic arguments, which in fact rely on general forms of finite population central limit theorems that have not been established before. Our new theorems fill in this gap by providing more solid theoretical foundation for asymptotic randomization-based causal inference.