Interpretation of Past Kingdoms Poems to Reconstruct the Physical Phenomena in the Past: Case of Great Tambora Eruption 1815

TL;DR

This study reconstructs the ash distribution from the 1815 Tambora eruption using poetic analysis and eruption comparisons, proposing a Gaussian distribution model and estimating a larger ash volume than previously accepted.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method of using historical poetry and eruption comparisons to model past volcanic ash distribution and volume.

Findings

Ash thickness in Bima is around 60 cm, not 10 cm.

Ash distribution follows an asymmetry Gaussian function.

Total ash volume estimated at 180 km³, 20% more than previous estimates.

Abstract

In this paper I reconstruct the distribution of ash released from great Tambora eruption in 1815. The reconstruction was developed by analyzing the meaning of Poem of Bima Kingdom written in 1830. I also compared the effect of Tambora eruption and the Kelud eruption February 13, 2014 to estimate the most logical thickness of ash that has fallen in Bima district. I get a more logical value for ash thickness in Bima district of around 60 cm, not 10 cm as widely reported. I also propose the change of ash distribution. Until presently, it was accepted that the ash thickness distribution satisfied asymmetry cone distribution. However, I propose the ash distributed according to asymmetry Gaussian function. Random simulation and fitting of the thickness data extracted from isopach map showed that the asymmetry Gaussian distribution is more acceptable. I obtained the total volume of ash released in Tambora eruption was around 180 km3, greater of about 20% than the present accepted value of 150 km3