Mathematical models of SIR disease spread with combined non-sexual and sexual transmission routes

TL;DR

This paper develops mathematical models to analyze the combined effects of sexual and non-sexual transmission routes in disease spread, providing exact predictions for disease dynamics in large populations.

Contribution

It introduces low-dimensional models that incorporate both sexual and non-sexual transmission mechanisms, enhancing understanding of complex disease spread scenarios.

Findings

Models accurately predict disease dynamics in large populations.

Combined transmission routes significantly affect outbreak size and duration.

Framework applicable to diseases like Zika and Ebola.

Abstract

The emergence of diseases such as Zika and Ebola has highlighted the need to understand the role of sexual transmission in the spread of diseases with a primarily non-sexual transmission route. In this paper we develop a number of low-dimensional models which are appropriate for a range of assumptions for how a disease will spread if it has sexual transmission through a sexual contact network combined with some other transmission mechanism, such as direct contact or vectors. The equations derived provide exact predictions for the dynamics of the corresponding simulations in the large population limit.