An empirically grounded agent based model for modeling directs, conflict detection and resolution operations in Air Traffic Management

TL;DR

This paper introduces an agent-based model of Air Traffic Management that simulates conflict detection, resolution, and directs to analyze system efficiency and controller behavior using real data calibration.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel, empirically calibrated agent-based model capturing interactions between aircraft and controllers, including conflict resolution and directs, for tactical air traffic management analysis.

Findings

Model reproduces geographical localization of controller operations.

Calibrated model can generate realistic scenario simulations.

Analyzes impact of forecast accuracy on conflict resolution and directs.

Abstract

We present an agent based model of the Air Traffic Management socio-technical complex system that aims at modeling the interactions between aircrafts and air traffic controllers at a tactical level. The core of the model is given by the conflict detection and resolution module and by the directs module. Directs are flight shortcuts that are given by air controllers to speed up the passage of an aircraft within a certain airspace and therefore to facilitate airline operations. Conflicts resolution between flight trajectories can arise during the en-route phase of each flight due to both not detailed flight trajectory planning or unforeseen events that perturb the planned flight plan. Our model performs a local conflict detection and resolution procedure. Once a flight trajectory has been made conflict-free, the model searches for possible improvements of the system efficiency by issuing directs. We give an example of model calibration based on real data. We then provide an illustration of the capability of our model in generating scenario simulations able to give insights about the air traffic management system. We show that the calibrated model is able to reproduce the existence of a geographical localization of air traffic controllers' operations. Finally, we use the model to investigate the relationship between directs and conflict resolutions (i) in the presence of perfect forecast ability of controllers, and (ii) in the presence of some degree of uncertainty in flight trajectory forecast.