Testing Quantum Models of Conjunction Fallacy on the World Wide Web

TL;DR

This paper investigates the cognitive mechanisms behind the conjunction fallacy using quantum models, finding that emergence effects, rather than order effects, primarily explain the fallacy, by analyzing web data.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method of using the World Wide Web as an information space to test quantum cognitive models of the conjunction fallacy.

Findings

Emergence effects are the main cause of the conjunction fallacy.

Order effects are less significant in explaining the fallacy.

Web data analysis supports the quantum emergence model.

Abstract

The 'conjunction fallacy' has been extensively debated by scholars in cognitive science and, in recent times, the discussion has been enriched by the proposal of modeling the fallacy using the quantum formalism. Two major quantum approaches have been put forward: the first assumes that respondents use a two-step sequential reasoning and that the fallacy results from the presence of 'question order effects'; the second assumes that respondents evaluate the cognitive situation as a whole and that the fallacy results from the 'emergence of new meanings', as an 'effect of overextension' in the conceptual conjunction. Thus, the question arises as to determine whether and to what extent conjunction fallacies would result from 'order effects' or, instead, from 'emergence effects'. To help clarify this situation, we propose to use the World Wide Web as an 'information space' that can be interrogated both in a sequential and non-sequential way, to test these two quantum approaches. We find that 'emergence effects', and not 'order effects', should be considered the main cognitive mechanism producing the observed conjunction fallacies.