A multiplicative process for generating the rank-order distribution of UK election results

TL;DR

This paper introduces a multiplicative model to generate rank-order distributions, successfully fitting UK election results with the additive Weibull distribution and offering new insights into electoral data analysis.

Contribution

It presents a novel multiplicative process model that explains UK election rank distributions and links it to the additive Weibull distribution fitting electoral data.

Findings

Additive Weibull distribution closely fits UK election data

The model provides a new interpretation of election results

Empirical evidence supports the proposed generative process

Abstract

Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with a better understanding of social phenomena. Here we propose a generative multiplicative decrease model that gives rise to a rank-order distribution and allows us to analyse the results of the last three UK parliamentary elections. We provide empirical evidence that the additive Weibull distribution, which can be generated from our model, is a close fit to the electoral data, offering a novel interpretation of the recent election results.