Probability of coincidental similarity among the orbits of small bodies - I. Pairing

TL;DR

This paper evaluates the likelihood of random orbital clustering among small celestial bodies using numerical simulations, analyzing factors like sample size, observation methods, and providing formulas for similarity thresholds.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive assessment of random orbital pairing probabilities considering various factors and offers practical formulas for similarity threshold calculation.

Findings

Probability varies with sample size and observation technique.

Different methods for generating synthetic orbits affect clustering probability.

Formulas provided for calculating similarity thresholds based on sample size.

Abstract

Probability of coincidental clustering among the orbits of comets, asteroids and meteoroids depends on many factors like: the size of the orbital sample searched for clusters or the size of the identified group, it is different for groups of 2,3,4, ... members. Probability of coincidental clustering is assessed by the numerical simulation, therefore, it depends also on the method used for the synthetic orbits generation. We tested the impact of some of these factors. For a given size of the orbital sample we have assessed probability of random pairing among several orbital populations of different sizes. We have found how these probabilities vary with the size of the orbital samples. Finally, keeping fixed size of the orbital sample we have shown that the probability of random pairing can be significantly different for the orbital samples obtained by different observation techniques. Also for the user convenience we have obtained several formulae which, for given size of the orbital sample, one can use to calculate the similarity threshold corresponding to the small value of the probability of coincidental similarity among two orbits.