Revisiting the prediction of solar activity based on the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length

TL;DR

This paper reevaluates the relationship between solar maximum amplitude and cycle length using updated sunspot data, finding that previous correlations are unreliable for predicting solar activity.

Contribution

It critically assesses the validity of a prior predictive model, demonstrating that the correlation depends on the chosen time interval and is not universally applicable.

Findings

Correlation between parameters depends on the time interval selected

Previous prediction method is unreliable for cycles before cycle 9

Updated sunspot data shows no consistent relationship for prediction

Abstract

It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these parameters depends on the time interval selected. Thus, the proposal of Du (2006) should definitively not be considered for prediction purposes.