The Waves and the Sigmas (To Say Nothing of the 750 GeV Mirage)

TL;DR

This paper critiques the misuse of p-values in scientific discovery, illustrating how they can undermine genuine signals like gravitational waves and discussing the implications for interpreting statistical significance.

Contribution

It highlights the limitations of p-values in detecting real signals and emphasizes the need for better statistical practices in scientific research.

Findings

P-values can diminish the perceived significance of genuine signals.

Misinterpretation of p-values leads to false expectations and missed discoveries.

Discussion of gravitational wave detections as real-world examples.

Abstract

This paper shows how p-values do not only create, as well known, wrong expectations in the case of flukes, but they might also dramatically diminish the `significance' of most likely genuine signals. As real life examples, the 2015 first detections of gravitational waves are discussed. The March 2016 statement of the American Statistical Association, warning scientists about interpretation and misuse of p-values, is also reminded and commented. (The paper is complemented with some remarks on past, recent and future claims of discoveries based on sigmas from Particles Physics.)